Naturally, this train of thought brings me to the state of network access. For all of the tasty access technology found in labs and demonstrations, the vast majority of carrier offerings are the same stale TDM (time-division multiplexing) circuits we used 15 years ago. Nailed-up 56-Kbps access circuits still support most private networks, consolidated at larger hubs via T1 lines. A scant few alternatives have been cooked up over the years, such as ISDN (don't even get me started about that). While new options are always on the horizon, the horizon is always a year or two away, like a mirage in the desert.

Hail the Arrival of LMDS? The moment of truth has arrived for one access technology, and the prognosis for LMDS (Local Multipoint Distribution Service) is grim. You've probably never been offered LMDS service, and if you don't get an offer for it within the next year, you probably never will. And that's too bad, because we need all the choices we can get.

Terrestrial broadband wireless technology is one of the few alternative network-access paths not already controlled by a monopoly. Incumbent local exchange carriers have a tight grip on the copper traditionally used for telephony. Cable-distribution systems belong to the cable companies. Broadband satellite networks are so expensive that only a few competitors can survive. And most electric utilities have no interest in the telephony business. Bypassing the imbedded infrastructure, an innovative wireless broadband service could break the access logjam. LMDS is the brightest option to deliver this service, but its hopes are dim in the United States.

The failure of LMDS to take hold will be a testament to carrier greed and stagnation. Or perhaps it'll be a paean to regulatory befuddlement. Take your pick. It's not that the technology doesn't work or that equipment costs are too high. It's certainly not that LMDS has no market--anybody running a network wants higher bandwidth at lower cost, and believe me, LMDS is poised to deliver. So why will LMDS fail?

LMDS is a "last mile" terrestrial wireless technology, appropriate for fixed locations. It shouldn't be confused with low-speed mobile technologies such as PCS, or analog or digital cellular. LMDS operates in the 25-to-32-GHz spectrum range (actually allocated at 28 GHz to 31 GHz in the United States) running over low-power millimeter waves.

LMDS' best application is for high-speed data, though it can carry TV broadcasts, conventional telephony and other broadband services. LMDS is an ideal data service for corporate and university campuses, multidwelling buildings and other fixed locations that are starved for affordable wide-area bandwidth--which is to say, just about everywhere you look.