Don't Count Java Out Of The Picture Just Yet

By Art Wittmann  In my last column, I talked about one industry group's view of where chip speeds and memory dens ities will be by the year 2012. If you missed it, here's the replay: The group found that CPUs would be a lot faster and memory density would be much higher. How insightful. Now, what lies ahead for software makers? My laptop runs at about 15 times the speed of my desktop computer of 15 years ago and has 32 times the amount of addressable memory. It amazes me that the stupid thing runs as slowly as it does sometimes. The first time-sharing systems that I used accommodated 30 or 40 users, had only a few megabytes of memory and ran immeasurably slower than the laptop. Yet, 30 people could use the minicomputer and get a reasonable response, while I can barely edit a document and get e-mail at the same time. OK, maybe I've overstated the case just a little. Indeed, time-shared systems certainly weren't any pleasure to use, particularly when compared with today's PC. And, I think it's perfectly reasonable that we give up some performance in tr ade for the wonderful GUIs that have become commonplace. However, the point is well made that we waste a lot of computer cycles in the name of modern user interfaces and programming methodologies. Most of that has simply to do with a change in the way applications are built now. The goals and tools of programmers have changed since the mid-1980s. Back then, the majority of operating systems and commercial applications were written in assembly language. Programmers intimately knew the capabilities of the hardware on which their software would run. Now, because of the complexity of software, applications are written in higher-level languages like C and C++. We get fancier applications with nice GUIs, but we sacrifice speed to get them. It's a reasonable trade-off, I suppose. I wouldn't want to go back to using WordPerfect 4.0 with its nongraphical interface. Wherever we are in 15 years, it will be at least as different from where we are today compared to 15 years ago, and the biggest difference on the sof tware development landscape today is Java. Java naysayers abound. In their case against it, they say it's too slow and it doesn't offer enough of an advantage over existing programming metaphors. If you can compile once and run anywhere, is that really enough of an advantage over the Windows claim that you can compile once and run 95 percent of everywhere? Java Hits the Spot I actually think Java may be just the thing for the next decade of applications. The problem with Windows is its pervasive sameness. Someone once said, "Did you ever notice that when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail?" That applies here. Underlying hardware and even operating systems, particularly on the server side, are not well served by a single operating system architecture. Multiprocessor systems, particularly massively parallel systems, need operating systems customized to their unique architecture--that way, hardware built to be the best RDBMS platform can employ whatever technology it takes to get t he job done. Java's challenge is to avoid supplying the same sort of stifling sameness that Windows does. If Java can give hardware vendors a guaranteed application base for any system they might dream up--as long it can run Java--then indeed, Java could be the rock that knocks off Goliaths Microsoft and Intel, at least on the server side. There's a long way to go, and it's far from clear that Java has what it takes to break the Microsoft-Intel market. One thing is certain, however: Compile once, run everywhere is not sufficient in and of itself to propel Java to the top. What we need is an environment where we can compile once and run everywhere better. If that means wasting some CPU cycles, then so be it. It just may take a little time for the processors to get fast enough to have the cycles to waste. Art Wittmann can be reached at awittmann@nwc.com.

Other Columnists this issue Corporate View By Brian Walsh In The Middle By Nick Gall Other Articles by Art Wittmann Don't Count Java Out Of The Picture Just Yet Marveling At The Resilient Chip Makers And The Leader In Desktop Price/Performance Is? A Tale Of Two Co mpanies: Dickens Revisited