Businesses also need a way to locate and buy those applications. While Java lacks a single distribution channel or even an expansive registry of enterprise applications, it does command existing distribution channels from established companies including IBM, Novell, Oracle and Sun. So, while channels exist, they need to be filled with much more than development tools and application server platforms.

The other factor that will determine Java's long-term success in the enterprise is the establishment of a single reference model for Enterprise JavaBeans (EJB). Without such a model, users say there is no guarantee of EJB interoperability.

IBM has written a reference implementation for EJB's Java Transaction Service that Sun licenses, according to Jason Woodard, IBM's program manager for Java technical marketing. Sun, in turn, has issued a Java Servlet Engine reference model that IBM licenses. But there seems to be a clear consensus that a single EJB reference model is needed for all of EJB's many functions.

Users and analysts tend to think an EJB reference model has yet to emerge simply because Sun is overwhelmed by the breadth of its Java undertaking coupled with its recent reorganization. Why doesn't Sun turn over the task to a partner such as IBM? Sun's response--that it plans to work with partners--is ambiguous. Analysts, however, speculate that because Sun's own internal product development is complemented by the control it exerts over a reference implementation, it will resist farming out so important a task. And that, in turn, will slow Java's acceptance in the enterprise.

Waiting for the Java Pot to Boil
So, what lies in Java's future? Aberdeen Group's Sloane believes that "if you look at the resources being thrown at Java from IBM, Sun, Netscape and Novell, it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't be able to make Java mature and reliable across more platforms."

Yet, Java is still only three years old, so obviously enterprises aren't going to find any Java programmers boasting about five years' experience. Java veterans and proficiency won't pop up overnight, even if, as Gartner Group's Smith concludes, "Java is rapidly becoming the teaching language at universities."

Businesses with the largest Java programming teams have attacked the staffing problem by retraining C and C++ programmers and establishing mentorships for programmers with less experience. However, most say it's the challenge of the work that still attracts programmers to this business, despite the rumors of bonus condos, new cars and other perks.

The demand for Java programmers is highlighted by the rather unusual agreement struck by Sun with New Horizons teaching centers, the world's largest independent computer training organization, to offer Java training. New Horizons has traditionally emphasized desktop training, with the bulk of language training in VB. Even courses in C++ are somewhat rare. But after seeing that Sun was already training 25,000 Java programmers a year and reviewing independent industry estimates that 750,000 Java programmers would be needed by 2000, New Horizons president and chief operating officer Chuck Kinch says he was "impressed." Most of the initial Java training offered by New Horizons will be in programming for the desktop.

But it isn't the cultivation of Java programmers, the creation of a reference model, technology investment or even distribution channels that will push Java out across the enterprise. Gartner Group's Smith says it's something much simpler: Defeating the perception among old-line IT staffers that Java is just for the Web.

Send your comments on this article to Christy Hudgins-Bonafield at cbonafield@nwc.com.